Sunday, 06 July 2014 00:00

Where does Brazil go?

At the time of a severe global crisis, many experts wonder what the impact on Brazil will be. Do not just look at the short term.

Where does this country go in the near and not so near future? O Globo took this question to government officials, economists, teachers, doctors, scientists and sportsmen.
The goal was to draw a portrait of Brazil they would want for the next 10 or 20 years.
In 2022, for example, completing the bicentennial of Independence, Brazil should be between the five major global economies and one of its main energy reserves.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of goods and services produced) will jump from $ 2.4 trillion last year to about $ 3.5 trillion, advancing on the path to reach the $ 5 trillion in 2030.
In 2022, nearly 210 million Brazilians, of which 70% of working age - all time record - will be a consumer market to envy the great nations and allow the country to start the next decade with a mission to stop being to perform, the old promise of the future.

In the Executive branch, there is no official flight plan that goes far beyond ten years with clear goals.
In general, the plans are the size of government.
The Union, for example, had difficulty making partnerships with China in the area of biodiversity conservation, while with Rio +20, we only have 10 year industrial projects. Asians are planning for the next three decades, said one government official, minister Izabella Teixeira.
Team members of President Dilma Rousseff, said that a major challenge is to reconcile the policies to expand the domestic market, with more income and access to credit, strategies for sustainability of the country.
And this will be increasingly the Brazilian reality in coming decades.
The actions of the Ministry of Finance to consider sustainable practices are still residual.
For the private sector, every effort should be concentrated in education, investments and tax and administrative reforms.
- The environment is on the agenda of the economy, in isolated projects, but growing: the My House, My Life plan, for example, expands the number of dwellings in the country, but now requires green materials. Tax advantages for more efficient cars that are being discussed now will be another novelty - a government source says.
Strategic planning is fragile.

Each of the 24 ministries and 13 agencies with ministerial status in Brasilia has a specific plan, which often does not communicate with others. The president herself, according to close aides, has a very particular vision. Economist João Paulo dos Reis Velloso, who was planning minister in the governments Medici and Geisel, is sarcastic when speaking of long-term strategy officer:
" If you know of one, let me know ", he joked. - The PACplan has nothing bad, but it's just a program. It was then that turned Planning ministry that began chickening out – the economist, responsible for the II National Development Plan (NDP) for 1975-79 said.
The "Brazil 2022" compendium of more than 100 pages prepared by the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs (SAE) of the Presidency at the time was still commanded by the then Minister Samuel Pinheiro Guimarães, is the official document that is closer to a vision strategic long term.
Created in 2010 still under Lula, the report sees a further sovereign country, participating on equal terms in international forums like the UN Security Council and the G-20, with a fairer and more progressive by 2022.
There are 180 related dreams - some vague, others more accurate - but without their means of making them reality. The list of desires, which are being called "Centennial Goals", including everything from growing more than 7% per year and reducing by half the number of homicides in the country to double the number of cities served by air services through zero the Brazilian housing deficit, ensuring 100% access to sanitation and the population reached five books per capita as the national readership.
At this time, the SAE is expanding what would have been the first attempt to create guidelines for the longer term the country. The Minister Wellington Moreira Franco says that the Plan is being made in 2022 + 10.
Goals should be known in 2013.
Regional inequality continues to drop.
In addition to the enormous growth of the consumer market, with almost 20 million Brazilians until 2022, investments and government record that projection to the economically active population (70%), must lead Brazil to the list of the top five, passing Germany and France.
However, Brazil would be overtaken by India and would be fifth.
Exact placement, however, depend on the rest of the world. If all grow, the chances of the country are smaller rise in the rankings. The National Confederation of Industry (CNI), meanwhile, estimates that the country could have a GDP in 2030 of U.S. $ 4.497 trillion and $ 5.226 trillion, depending on whether the average growth of the country stand at 3.3% per annum - first scenario - or 3.9% in the second estimate. The top four ranking will be, according to the organization, China, USA, Japan and India.
José Augusto Coelho Fernandes, Director of Policy and Strategy CNI believes that the country's future is in the hands of Brazilians:
" 70% believe that the agenda of the country's future is in the hands of the Brazilians. Of course it's better an environment of global growth, but part of our solutions depend on it. We need more education, more innovation, tax reform, labor rules more modern and more investment in infrastructure, regardless of whether or not the worsening crisis in Europe, the U.S. recovery and China's growth" he explained.
Vanessa Corrêa Petrelli, the new president of the IPEA, says that to talk about the future of the country it is necessary to study its recent past. The average growth in Brazil in the last two decades of the last century, of 2.2%, nearly doubled to 4.3% per year between 2004 and 2011:
" During this period investment rose, increased consumption, we take the momentum of the commodities, the government made a strong social policy of income distribution and public banks expanded the credit. The growth reduced inequality between regions, which should be intensified in the next two decades ", says the economist.
Investments need to keep growing strong to account for this expansion. The CNI, for example, indicates that the country will need seven million homes in 15 years, at a cost of $ 60 billion. The wind array will be the third most used in 2020, with more than 6% of the park to generate electricity. Environmentalists want that sanitation is universalized by 2030.
The oil is on the agenda of the country with exploration in the pre-salt. This is one of the biggest bets of the government, he expects the country to be lifted in the next 20 years to the ranking of the big five reserves on the planet that can attract more than $ 350 billion in investments there.
Although it has not got the approval of the project that distributes petroleum resources that will be taken from depths unimaginable until very recently, government and private sector are preparing for the future. The government works for that wealth to be used as a savings from the creation of the Social Fund, which may leave until the end of the year.
To the economist Sergio Besserman, oil has to be the provider of funds for the transition to the economy of the future, which will be based on sustainability:
- We can do what Celso Furtado called dynamic displacement of the center. With a lot of science, technology and low carbon.

Published in Economy
Friday, 06 June 2014 00:00

Doing Business In Brazil

Researching the Market
Why Brazil? Brazil is simply too big a market to ignore. It is the fifth-largest country in the world, with a population of approximately 200 million. It has one of the world's most rapidly developing economies and a GDP per head that is greater than either India or China. It has natural resources in abundance, a developed industrial base, high standards in scientific research and substantial human capital.

Published in Start Ups
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