BRICS in Turbulence: Can Brazil Hold the Bloc Together Amid Global Tensions?
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Amsterdam, June 29th, 2025 – As the BRICS summit approaches in Rio de Janeiro, the mood is far from celebratory. What was meant to be a showcase of Brazil’s diplomatic leadership is now clouded by high-profile absences, geopolitical rifts, and mounting criticism from global powers. With President Xi Jinping of China and President Vladimir Putin of Russia both opting out of attending in person, the question looms: Is Brazil’s moment in the BRICS spotlight slipping away?
A Summit Without Its Stars
Xi Jinping’s decision to skip the summit marks the first time the Chinese leader has missed a BRICS gathering since the bloc’s inception. Officially, Beijing cites scheduling conflicts and recent high-level engagements with Brazil as reasons for the absence. However, diplomatic insiders suggest that tensions over Brazil’s domestic politics and its handling of social media regulation—particularly involving First Lady Janja da Silva and TikTok—may have played a role.
Putin’s absence, while expected, adds further weight to the summit’s challenges. The Russian president faces an active arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, and Brazil’s status as a signatory to the Rome Statute complicates any potential visit. Instead, Russia will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, with Putin joining via videoconference.
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Iran, Israel, and the BRICS Balancing Act
The summit’s agenda has been further complicated by the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, which has drawn in the United States and raised global alarm. As a newly inducted BRICS member, Iran is pushing for strong language condemning Israel and the U.S. in the summit’s final communiqué. Brazil, however, is walking a tightrope—seeking to maintain neutrality while also upholding its commitment to international law and peace.
Brazil’s Foreign Ministry has already condemned Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian territory as a “violation of sovereignty”, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Western allies and fueled accusations—particularly from former U.S. President Donald Trump—that Brazil is “soft on terrorism”. Trump’s administration has floated the idea of classifying Latin American criminal organizations as terrorist groups, and some of his allies have even suggested links between Brazilian factions and groups like Hezbollah.
Lula’s Diplomatic Dilemma
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva now finds himself in a precarious position. On one hand, he aims to elevate Brazil’s global standing through multilateralism and South-South cooperation. On the other, he must navigate a BRICS bloc that is increasingly fractured by divergent interests and geopolitical allegiances.
Brazil’s leadership of the 2025 BRICS presidency was meant to focus on issues like climate change, AI governance, and global health. But with the summit now dominated by security concerns and absent power players, Lula’s ability to steer the conversation—and preserve the bloc’s cohesion—is under intense scrutiny.
Conclusion: A Test of Brazil’s Global Ambitions
The Rio summit may not be the diplomatic triumph Lula envisioned, but it is far from a flop. Instead, it serves as a stress test for BRICS itself—a bloc that must prove its relevance in a world increasingly defined by conflict and polarization. For Brazil, the challenge is clear: to assert itself as a credible mediator and leader without alienating allies or compromising its principles.
Whether Lula can rise to that challenge will shape not only the future of BRICS, but Brazil’s place in the global order.
Sources:
- Cúpula do Brics no Rio ocorrerá sem a presença de Xi Jinping e Vladimir Putin
- Por que Xi Jinping e Vladimir Putin vão faltar à cúpula do Brics no Rio de Janeiro | VEJA
- Brazil braces for difficult BRICS summit amid armed conflicts | Foreign Affairs | valorinternational
- Brazil condemns Israel’s attack on Iran: “Violation of sovereignty” | Agência Brasil