To Join or Not to join

Brazil’s Ambivalence Toward the BRI

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Amsterdam, 14 November 2024–Two weeks ago, Brazil’s presidential advisor for international affairs, Celso Amorim, announced that Brazil will not be joining the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

This decision came as an unexpected surprise to many, as expectations had been building that Brazil would sign on during President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Latin America.

Currently 22 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have already joined the BRI, and with nearly half of China’s investments in the region flowing into Brazil, its participation in the BRI was seen as a potential highlight for Xi’s visit.

Brazil’s refusal appears to stem from internal disagreements. Some officials worried that joining the BRI could strain relations with the United States, especially given the possibility of another Trump administration.
Others argued that participating in the BRI could serve as a valuable counterbalance to the protectionist policies of both the US and the European Union.

Nevertheless, this decision does not necessarily signal a downturn in Brazil-China relations. Amorim has expressed optimism about elevating their partnership to a “new level” without the need for a new treaty. Given that BRI membership may hold more symbolic than practical significance, Brazil’s cooperation with China – even in the domain of infrastructure – is expected to continue as per normal. Essentially, Brazil doesn’t need the BRI to talk business with China, their economic weight alone will keep the conversation going.

Beijing has yet to issue an official response to Brazil’s decision, and little attention has been paid to the topic in Chinese media. However, an article in The Global Times, a state-run newspaper, expressed a clear dissatisfaction with what it views as U.S. interference in Brazil’s decision. The article criticizes Washington D.C. for pressuring Brazil to avoid joining the BRI, suggesting that the U.S. views Latin America through an outdated Cold War lens and should not dictate Brazil’s foreign policy choices