🇧🇷✈️ Brazil’s Brain Drain: Judicial Insecurity and Tariffs Push Embraer—and Jobs—Out of the Country

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Amsterdam, September 10^th, 2025 – In a sobering reflection on Brazil’s current economic climate, attorney Jeffrey Chiquini, representing political strategist Filipe Martins, recently warned that judicial insecurity is driving investors and entrepreneurs away from Brazil. His remarks echo a growing concern among business leaders: when legal unpredictability collides with political turbulence, the private sector begins to look elsewhere.

One of the most striking examples of this exodus is Embraer, Brazil’s aerospace crown jewel. Facing the threat of a steep tariff hike from U.S. President Donald Trump—who recently announced a 50% import tax on Brazilian goods—Embraer has opted to expand its operations in Florida, rather than risk its future in São José dos Campos.

While Trump’s executive order carved out exemptions for civil aircraft and parts, the damage was already done. Embraer’s leadership, fearing long-term instability and punitive trade policies, decided to shift part of its production to the U.S., where regulatory clarity and market access offer a safer haven. The move is expected to create hundreds of new jobs in America, while potentially leaving thousands of Brazilian workers vulnerable to layoffs.

Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes Neto compared the tariff threat to the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, warning that the company could lose up to R$ 20 billion by 2030 if the trade war escalates. With 45% of its commercial jet sales and 70% of its executive jet sales tied to the U.S. market, Embraer’s pivot is not just strategic—it’s existential.

This situation underscores a broader dilemma: Brazil’s internal instability is now exporting opportunity abroad. As Chiquini pointed out, when courts are perceived as politicized and legal outcomes unpredictable, businesses lose confidence. And when that confidence erodes, so do jobs, innovation, and national pride.

The irony is bitter. While Embraer’s sleek jets may soon soar over American skies, the workers who built its legacy in Brazil may be grounded—by a system that failed to protect them.

Sources:

1. Embraer ducks Trump’s 50% US tariff hike, aircraft exempt
2. Embraer pode perder até R$ 20 bilhões com tarifaço de Trump | Economia | cbn
3. Como a Embraer virou referência na aviação — e qual será o impacto de tarifas de Trump | ASMETRO-SI